Here's some places you need to check out:
http://www.skepdic.com - Skeptic's Dictionary, outlining bullshit, woo, and psuedoscience, why they are wrong, and common terms, tools, and generally good things to know, think snopes.com in a way.
http://www.site.stopjenny.com/ - STOP JENNY MCCARTHY. The ex-booger picking idiot from MTV is on a crusade against vaccinations, wheat, and dairy products, claiming they all caused or contributed to her son's autism. SHe is wrong, there is evidence, and the whole anti-vaccination movement is responsible for Polio still being around.
http://www.stopsylviabrowne.com/ - STOP SYLVIA BROWNE. This is another- like John Edwards, James Van Praag, and Uri Geller- fake ass psychic bilking people out of money. She's the one that told a couple on Montell that their child was dead and some years later the child was found- not extremely far away- being held by a nut-bag.
http://www.randi.org/ - JAMES RANDI EDUCATION FOUNDATION. The JREF is awesome, and a great resource, especially their very active Forums. Search the forums and it's likely all your questions will be answered.
http://www.theskepticsguide.org/ - THE SKEPTICS' GUIDE TO THE UNIVERSE. Best Podcast EVER! Also an active Forum, 20 common Logical Fallacies, and other great resources.
http://www.theness.com/neurologicablog/ - Doctor Steven Novella's blog
http://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/ - Group Blog, including Doctor Steven Novella, great resource fighting woo and psuedoscience in medicine (like anti-vaxxers)
http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/ - PZ Myers blog (if you don't know him, you should).
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/ - Bad Astronomer, and President of the JREF, Phil Plait's blog.
http://skepchick.org/blog/ - Group Blog, featuring Rebecca Watson.
http://whatstheharm.net/ - WHAT'S THE HARM. So, you think belief in ghosts, psychics, homeopathy, or other such bullshit doesn't have a negative side? Go see how many people have died, been swindled, injured, or otherwise quantifiably hurt by woo, psuedoscience, and bullshit.
There are many others, but these are the ones I tend to hit, cite, and read regularly. These are important resources, especially when referring friends and family, or trying to develop better arguments against the crap people believe. I've included them here, because though these sites aren't necessarily atheists sites, a certain fat whore is all-over the intardwub today spouting her bullshit and hate; and I think it's a good time to remind people of the good guys in the face of such disgusting shit.
(By the by, I'm attacking her sexual proclivity and weight, not to cast doubt on her intelligence, or the validity of her arguments; but because I'm a hateful prick who enjoys preying on the weak and stupid. Well, actually I enjoy preying on the stupid, it just so happens most of them are rather weak-willed, too. Her arguments are wrong because of various reasons, I leave to readers to discover for themselves. She's a "cunted cunt" because her bloated disgusting hate is washing through my personal spaces today via multiple places I regularly enjoy reading, and I'm a bit pissed at having to deal with her crap. So, she's a fat whore- no offense to all the whores out there- because she's fucking with my groove, man. Warren and PZ forced me to write this tangential shit, the bastards....) [Last thing: It's really not a great way of handling that sorta shit; but I sorta agree with the ideals of Rational Response Squad that fighting anger and arrogance with anger and arrogance and truth and logic is a justifiable offensive strategy].
{Also: Che Guevera and the Beatles blow ass, just sayin'...}
Read More...
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Monday, October 20, 2008
Time to Talk
It's time we had a little talk. We're friends, right? And we can say, to each other, whatever we're thinking, right? This is a no-judging zone, right? Because we're friends. Good, good...
I know Chris Rock, Martin Lawrence, and anyone else trying to legitimize anger over historical wrongs, and some modern hardships, has been telling you how there's a difference between "white people" and "black people"; but you do see they're getting paid to say that shit, right? Of course you do.
How many black presidents do there have to be before we can just drop this whole "I'm being treated differently based on the color of my skin" thing? Oh, settle down, I'm not talking about completely. I know there're some racist fucks still out there. I know there are still some people who distrust others on the color of their skin. There are still people who think "race" wasn't something we made up out of whole cloth. But, I mean in general. I mean, when can we stop the "I'm being singled out" defense for non-specific incidents?
Because isn't it racist to claim it when it's not true?
And does a black President mean it's time to address some of this last-generation, and before, bullshit that's only left over because the old hateful dinosaurs won't hurry the fuck up and die?
Or does even talking about this out loud, as a white devil (in the words of the Nation of Islam), mean I'm somehow racist?
Glad we could have this chat... Read More...
I know Chris Rock, Martin Lawrence, and anyone else trying to legitimize anger over historical wrongs, and some modern hardships, has been telling you how there's a difference between "white people" and "black people"; but you do see they're getting paid to say that shit, right? Of course you do.
How many black presidents do there have to be before we can just drop this whole "I'm being treated differently based on the color of my skin" thing? Oh, settle down, I'm not talking about completely. I know there're some racist fucks still out there. I know there are still some people who distrust others on the color of their skin. There are still people who think "race" wasn't something we made up out of whole cloth. But, I mean in general. I mean, when can we stop the "I'm being singled out" defense for non-specific incidents?
Because isn't it racist to claim it when it's not true?
And does a black President mean it's time to address some of this last-generation, and before, bullshit that's only left over because the old hateful dinosaurs won't hurry the fuck up and die?
Or does even talking about this out loud, as a white devil (in the words of the Nation of Islam), mean I'm somehow racist?
Glad we could have this chat... Read More...
Top Gear
If you don't watch the BBC's Top Gear, you're missing one of the smartest, funniest, and most entertaining shows on television. I have watched it with my sisters in the room, one who mildly cares about cars the other who doesn't at all, and we were all laughing and enjoying the show. It's great, and most of you will probably already have seen it.
Recently, I saw a clip on YouTube that made me want to move away more than I ever have before. (A Quick Aside: Part of growing up in Alabama, and not being a worthless redneck bigot, is an intense desire to run far far away as quickly as possible- though this is usually an expression of teenage angst, and massive poverty tends to undermine this for most, imo.) Whatever. The point is, there are two clips, totaling about 20 minutes of an hour long Top Gear episode where they go through Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisianna.
What happens in Alabama is.... embarrassing, to say the least. (It happens in the second half, and there's no need to preface the events by watching the first half, but Top Gear really is entertaining and if you have the extra 10 minutes watch both instead of the horribly uncool bits of part 2)....
Without further ado:
(These are posted on YouTube by the BBC and embedding is disabled, but they should stay up for a long long time)
Part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOyDLUzAAOY
Part 2: (Containing the truly embarrassing visit to AL) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2syY12OPkwI Read More...
Recently, I saw a clip on YouTube that made me want to move away more than I ever have before. (A Quick Aside: Part of growing up in Alabama, and not being a worthless redneck bigot, is an intense desire to run far far away as quickly as possible- though this is usually an expression of teenage angst, and massive poverty tends to undermine this for most, imo.) Whatever. The point is, there are two clips, totaling about 20 minutes of an hour long Top Gear episode where they go through Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisianna.
What happens in Alabama is.... embarrassing, to say the least. (It happens in the second half, and there's no need to preface the events by watching the first half, but Top Gear really is entertaining and if you have the extra 10 minutes watch both instead of the horribly uncool bits of part 2)....
Without further ado:
(These are posted on YouTube by the BBC and embedding is disabled, but they should stay up for a long long time)
Part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOyDLUzAAOY
Part 2: (Containing the truly embarrassing visit to AL) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2syY12OPkwI Read More...
Sunday, October 19, 2008
McCain's Latest Bullshit
So, as anyone paying attention has heard, this morning Colin Powell- one of, if not the, most popular people in American Politics today, still- has endorsed Obama. What did McCain have to say? "I've been friends with Colin Powell for a long time..." trying to associate his name with the popular dissenter, thereby lessening the effect of Powell's recriminations of a campaign that's so negative the same neo-con pundits telling McCain to go this way a few weeks ago, are begging him to go back to the affable McCain of '00. But that's par for the course in politics, trying to lessen the damage of a popular dissenter.
What shocked me, was McCain's immediate follow-up: Kissinger, Baker, Hague, and the fourth Stooge, all former Secretaries of State, support him. WHAT?!?! You're proud of that? Like we need more proof you're completely out of touch!
McCain told Fox News (of course) "Dracula, Frankenstein, and the Wolfman" are behind him. Like sewing up the old white war-criminal vote is cause for relief! Kissinger: war criminal, just ask Christopher Hitchens. Baker: one of the geniuses behind Iraq War I, and the current travesty of a sequel. Haig: "I'm in control", and if that's not enough (from wikipedia): "A military hawk, Haig caused some alarm with his suggestion that a "nuclear warning shot" in Europe might be effective in deterring the Soviet Union." Eagleburger: Never heard of him? He's such a minor figure wikipedia only offers two sentences about his time as Sec of State: that he was appointed after Baker went to handle re-election and he was put on in a recess appointment.
Haig and Eagleburger are old Kissinger flunkies, and Baker is only a factor in politics because of George Dub's daddy. How was that, Senator? You're not WHO again?
It's disappointing, I really like McCain back in '00, before Rove's boyz got their hooks in him. Back when he really cared about his message and what he had to say. Back before he'd decided cozying up the Rep base was more important than honesty. It's a sad day, when such a truly amazing man is such a horrible caricature of who we all knew he once was.
And just so you don't think I'm just picking on McCain, lemme clue you in on something, right now. If McCain loses, and the only way he won't is if Dems and new voters get complacent and don't flood the polls like they're projected to do, there's gonna be some talk about some things. No, I don't mean the bullshit Republican speil that ACORN and other "nefarious" organizations have committed massive voter fraud be- shock of shocks- allowing poor people to vote!
There's going to be a discussion about if McCain could have changed the Republican party. He was a moderate- fuck he might still be, underneath all the base-pandering bullshit he's been doing in his general campaign. He had chastised Republicans on several issues- though if siding with your own party 90% of the time makes you a Maverick, there's not many who aren't. He could, conceivably pull the Republicans away from this evangelical bullshit and back to the fiscally conservative, small government, socially moderate, Republicans we all like to remember fondly.
The problem is, it's not likely. Sure, maybe he could do it if he got elected to his SECOND term; but his first- with 18 months of governing before the mid-terms- isn't going to be especially maverick-y and gee-golly new. It's going to be that 90% time, not that 10% time. But that won't stop the discussions. I've already heard it mentioned once; don't be surprised if it's talked about more, especially if Obama wins and that somehow keeps the evangelicals in power. (Don't think they're dumb enough to hold on after a resounding reprimand from the American People? Remember these are the people who STILL think Bush is doing a GOOD job.)
The Republicans have shown their true colors, in my opinion. Over the past 8 years, we've seen aggressive roll backs on corporate punishments, corporate oversight, and corporate restrictions. We've seen aggressive tax cuts that significantly help the richest 1%, who control more wealth than the poorest 50%. And to top it all off, there was increased defense spending the WHOLE time, roll-back of civil rights (outting Valerie Plame, wire-tapping, torture, etc etc). Now, they're telling everyone that anyone in a big city isn't American- even though the majority of the 300 million+ people in America live in a BIG CITY! They've chosen a hypocritical, rabidly anti-environment oil lobbyist evangelical, married to a pro-secessionist, as a hideous way of trying to re-brand themselves "modern"; and they've turned one of their absolute best into a horribly miserly, asshat who is barely worthy of respect.
Fucking pathetic. If there was anyway to split them into the Libertarian Party and Hezbollah (remember, that means: Party of God), I'd gladly do it. At least, then you could hope someone as worthy of respect as McCain might actually be worthy of the vote he won't be getting. Read More...
What shocked me, was McCain's immediate follow-up: Kissinger, Baker, Hague, and the fourth Stooge, all former Secretaries of State, support him. WHAT?!?! You're proud of that? Like we need more proof you're completely out of touch!
McCain told Fox News (of course) "Dracula, Frankenstein, and the Wolfman" are behind him. Like sewing up the old white war-criminal vote is cause for relief! Kissinger: war criminal, just ask Christopher Hitchens. Baker: one of the geniuses behind Iraq War I, and the current travesty of a sequel. Haig: "I'm in control", and if that's not enough (from wikipedia): "A military hawk, Haig caused some alarm with his suggestion that a "nuclear warning shot" in Europe might be effective in deterring the Soviet Union." Eagleburger: Never heard of him? He's such a minor figure wikipedia only offers two sentences about his time as Sec of State: that he was appointed after Baker went to handle re-election and he was put on in a recess appointment.
Haig and Eagleburger are old Kissinger flunkies, and Baker is only a factor in politics because of George Dub's daddy. How was that, Senator? You're not WHO again?
It's disappointing, I really like McCain back in '00, before Rove's boyz got their hooks in him. Back when he really cared about his message and what he had to say. Back before he'd decided cozying up the Rep base was more important than honesty. It's a sad day, when such a truly amazing man is such a horrible caricature of who we all knew he once was.
And just so you don't think I'm just picking on McCain, lemme clue you in on something, right now. If McCain loses, and the only way he won't is if Dems and new voters get complacent and don't flood the polls like they're projected to do, there's gonna be some talk about some things. No, I don't mean the bullshit Republican speil that ACORN and other "nefarious" organizations have committed massive voter fraud be- shock of shocks- allowing poor people to vote!
There's going to be a discussion about if McCain could have changed the Republican party. He was a moderate- fuck he might still be, underneath all the base-pandering bullshit he's been doing in his general campaign. He had chastised Republicans on several issues- though if siding with your own party 90% of the time makes you a Maverick, there's not many who aren't. He could, conceivably pull the Republicans away from this evangelical bullshit and back to the fiscally conservative, small government, socially moderate, Republicans we all like to remember fondly.
The problem is, it's not likely. Sure, maybe he could do it if he got elected to his SECOND term; but his first- with 18 months of governing before the mid-terms- isn't going to be especially maverick-y and gee-golly new. It's going to be that 90% time, not that 10% time. But that won't stop the discussions. I've already heard it mentioned once; don't be surprised if it's talked about more, especially if Obama wins and that somehow keeps the evangelicals in power. (Don't think they're dumb enough to hold on after a resounding reprimand from the American People? Remember these are the people who STILL think Bush is doing a GOOD job.)
The Republicans have shown their true colors, in my opinion. Over the past 8 years, we've seen aggressive roll backs on corporate punishments, corporate oversight, and corporate restrictions. We've seen aggressive tax cuts that significantly help the richest 1%, who control more wealth than the poorest 50%. And to top it all off, there was increased defense spending the WHOLE time, roll-back of civil rights (outting Valerie Plame, wire-tapping, torture, etc etc). Now, they're telling everyone that anyone in a big city isn't American- even though the majority of the 300 million+ people in America live in a BIG CITY! They've chosen a hypocritical, rabidly anti-environment oil lobbyist evangelical, married to a pro-secessionist, as a hideous way of trying to re-brand themselves "modern"; and they've turned one of their absolute best into a horribly miserly, asshat who is barely worthy of respect.
Fucking pathetic. If there was anyway to split them into the Libertarian Party and Hezbollah (remember, that means: Party of God), I'd gladly do it. At least, then you could hope someone as worthy of respect as McCain might actually be worthy of the vote he won't be getting. Read More...
Stuck in my Head
This has been stuck in my head, recently; and i can't say I'm mad. It's very catchy, and it's an awesome band.
Read More...
Read More...
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Monday, October 13, 2008
MMO's
Recently, I've been looking at, and thinking about, various Massively Multiplayer Online games. It started, for me, back when Everquest was new-ish (around the time immediately before the first expansion came out). I played World of Warcraft last year; and I just finished reading Charlie Stross's HALTING STATE- about AUG's, MMO's, and life in near future Scotland.
Back in 1999, I worked for a small local engineering firm. A software engineer for the company had left maybe a week before I started- small time contractual 3D data manipulation. During the three months I was working there, one of the other engineers showed me what the software guy had left to do- a 3D Space-based MMO. So, when I found Star Sonata, I took a look for the somewhat-nostalgic feeling of "Maybe I sorta knew someone who kinda did one of these things once, possibly."
Jump to 2006. I was introduced to a text MMO called Nation States (link in the sidebar for The Rogue Nation of Sunuvabitch). Nation States is a government simulation, with a hugely active community around it. It was inspired by Max Berry's Jennifer Government. Mostly, it is a whimsical, sarcastic, dystopian view of how solving an issue will always cause something bad to happen. There's not a lot to the game itself. Design a country- name, flag, starting governmental type, currency, and national animal- pick the government's position on issues- gas taxes, environmental impact, freedom of speech, the press, religion, and the citizenry. Initially, your country is a few paragraphs that detail the stuff you picked and the underlying game mechanics- such as crime rate, tax rate, leading economic sectors (Computer Chips, Drugs, Weapons, etc). As positions are chosen- there's always the option to purposefully ignore an issue- witty sentences are added to the last paragraph of the country's description. On an issue such as "Crime is out of control in our nation's schools!", picking one option of the five presented ("Get 'em early and make them behave, OR ELSE!") might result in a new addition to the country's description: "Lines of frightened, dreary, preschoolers and their heavily armed guard/protectors are common sights at the nation's military run schools." There's no direct, head-to-head, competition in the game; but it has the never-ending quality of all MMOs. For more head-to-head aspects, look to games like Cyber Nations.
Jump to 2008. Myspace adds "Apps", games regress to 1995! I remember using my computer's 2400 baud modem (That slowness of yesteryear is total 'net-cred today, bay-be!) to directly connect to other computers and access their BBS's. These BBS had mostly text- interspersed with ASCII art of varying qualities- games that could be played by anyone on the Board. Limiting factors replenished daily at midnight, or whenever else the daily maintenance was scheduled. If you've played MOBSTERS, MAFIA WARS, or any of their clones (DRAGON WARS, etc) on Myspace, imagine the graphics sucked and you'd know almost EXACTLY what those old BBS games were like. Except, it must be said, several of the old BBS games were WAY better. (Red Dragon Inn, Lands of Devastation, and Trade Wars specifically).
Consider, also, Second Life, any of the main- stream MMORPGs (EQ, EQ2, WoW, DAC, UO, SWG, FF:XI, etc). There are a significant number of people playing these games, and a large amount of cash in the industry. Which is why there are games like Star Sonata, and many more, out there. It's like what Penn Jillette supposedly said: "[Y]ou'd think with 300 million people in the country, you don't even have to please 1% to be phenomenally successful." And that's the key: people.
Enter Institute for the Future and their SUPERSTRUCT GAME. I'll let the game describe itself:
What's the point?
[From the FAQ]:
In other words, nuts who think the world might actually end have co-opted MMOs to help develop solutions. Never mind that the world isn't going to end, that the current financial problems will pass, and that little or nothing will come from the game. The point is, it shows that smart (though, completely misguided) people are taking gaming- specifically MMOs- to a new level.
Charlie Stross's vision of the near future of 2018 is looking more real than ever. Read More...
Back in 1999, I worked for a small local engineering firm. A software engineer for the company had left maybe a week before I started- small time contractual 3D data manipulation. During the three months I was working there, one of the other engineers showed me what the software guy had left to do- a 3D Space-based MMO. So, when I found Star Sonata, I took a look for the somewhat-nostalgic feeling of "Maybe I sorta knew someone who kinda did one of these things once, possibly."
Jump to 2006. I was introduced to a text MMO called Nation States (link in the sidebar for The Rogue Nation of Sunuvabitch). Nation States is a government simulation, with a hugely active community around it. It was inspired by Max Berry's Jennifer Government. Mostly, it is a whimsical, sarcastic, dystopian view of how solving an issue will always cause something bad to happen. There's not a lot to the game itself. Design a country- name, flag, starting governmental type, currency, and national animal- pick the government's position on issues- gas taxes, environmental impact, freedom of speech, the press, religion, and the citizenry. Initially, your country is a few paragraphs that detail the stuff you picked and the underlying game mechanics- such as crime rate, tax rate, leading economic sectors (Computer Chips, Drugs, Weapons, etc). As positions are chosen- there's always the option to purposefully ignore an issue- witty sentences are added to the last paragraph of the country's description. On an issue such as "Crime is out of control in our nation's schools!", picking one option of the five presented ("Get 'em early and make them behave, OR ELSE!") might result in a new addition to the country's description: "Lines of frightened, dreary, preschoolers and their heavily armed guard/protectors are common sights at the nation's military run schools." There's no direct, head-to-head, competition in the game; but it has the never-ending quality of all MMOs. For more head-to-head aspects, look to games like Cyber Nations.
Jump to 2008. Myspace adds "Apps", games regress to 1995! I remember using my computer's 2400 baud modem (That slowness of yesteryear is total 'net-cred today, bay-be!) to directly connect to other computers and access their BBS's. These BBS had mostly text- interspersed with ASCII art of varying qualities- games that could be played by anyone on the Board. Limiting factors replenished daily at midnight, or whenever else the daily maintenance was scheduled. If you've played MOBSTERS, MAFIA WARS, or any of their clones (DRAGON WARS, etc) on Myspace, imagine the graphics sucked and you'd know almost EXACTLY what those old BBS games were like. Except, it must be said, several of the old BBS games were WAY better. (Red Dragon Inn, Lands of Devastation, and Trade Wars specifically).
Consider, also, Second Life, any of the main- stream MMORPGs (EQ, EQ2, WoW, DAC, UO, SWG, FF:XI, etc). There are a significant number of people playing these games, and a large amount of cash in the industry. Which is why there are games like Star Sonata, and many more, out there. It's like what Penn Jillette supposedly said: "[Y]ou'd think with 300 million people in the country, you don't even have to please 1% to be phenomenally successful." And that's the key: people.
Enter Institute for the Future and their SUPERSTRUCT GAME. I'll let the game describe itself:
What's the point?
[From the FAQ]:
The Ten Year Forecast team at the Institute for the Future will analyze the player-created game content. We'll prepare an official Superstruct Report featuring our top collective insights about the year 2019, and the best tactics for superstructing society. Highlights from the report will be emailed to all registered Superstruct players in April 2009. Meanwhile, the Superstruct site will stay live and open to the public as an immersive archive, so you can continue to show your friends, family and colleagues the future you helped invent.
In other words, nuts who think the world might actually end have co-opted MMOs to help develop solutions. Never mind that the world isn't going to end, that the current financial problems will pass, and that little or nothing will come from the game. The point is, it shows that smart (though, completely misguided) people are taking gaming- specifically MMOs- to a new level.
Charlie Stross's vision of the near future of 2018 is looking more real than ever. Read More...
Friday, October 10, 2008
My Hovercar Broke!
There's something wrong with my Space Age! I have no jet pack, no hover-car, no bionics, and no space station in L4, or L5, to go visit! This blows syphilitic donkey cocks in manure pools during a heat wave in Death Valley- not to put too fine a point on it. What happened to my future?
Technically, we still live in the SPACE AGE!, but practically the SPACE AGE! was over 36 year ago- when the last Apollo mission landed on the moon. Since then, we've stayed in relatively close-Earth orbits. We have done some very breathtaking things- like put Hubble up, then fix her, put robots on Mars, put robots near/on/in Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Mars, Venus, Mercury, Sol, the Asteroid Belt, various comets, and the moons of various planets. Not to mention the amount of satellites. Just think, less than 60 years ago nothing man-made existed in space, and today we have objects that are "more distant from the Sun than any known natural solar system object" according to the wikiGoodness. So, technically, we're still in the SPACE AGE!- because you're either in the SPACE AGE! or you're pre-SPACE AGE!; but practically we're not actually in "space". Still not convinced?
Imagine a room full of people, and a common social game starts. It's the game of one-ups-man-ship. Someone starts with "I'm originally from a country that everyone in the world learns about due to it's historical significance." Another chimes in with "I'm a professor at an illustrious college, who helps form the minds of the greatest thinkers of the next generations." Yet another adds "I'm an Oscar winning Actor, renowned for my ability to convey great emotional portent through my talent." "I'm a professional Athlete who won awards during my collegiate years." "I'm a professional Athlete who was the MVP of the most prestigious game in my sport!" The competition gets into full swing. "I am a Senator from the Great State of YaddaBlahBlah." "I am a Nobel Laureate!" "I have been President of these United States of America!" And finally, from the back comes a masculine voice with an American accent. "I have walked on the Moon."
Fewer people have walked on the moon than have been president of the USA. Twelve people, in the entire history of the human race, have ever left this planet and walked on the surface of another world. 12. Currently there are over 6,000,000,012 on the planet.
Only three countries- China, Russia, and the US- have ever put people in "space". Many other countries have had people on missions those three have conducted; but the fact remains: 3 countries of well over 100, and 12 people in more than 7 billion (this is counting everyone who has ever lived, and those alive today).
The SPACE AGE! ended when we stopped putting people on the Moon. Today, and ever since then, we've been puttering around inside our own atmosphere. We barely put anything into space itself. Sure, there are probes and satellites, observatories, telescopes, and (very few) other things; but there hasn't been people out there in a long long time.
Does that mean we need to spend the money and go to Mars, to Europa, Ganymede, Titan, Enceladus, or somewhere else? No, but I'd be beside myself if we did. I'd be happy to go back to the Moon. I'd be ecstatic if we would simply do what we last showed we were capable of in 1972! I would like to actually live in THE SPACE AGE! instead of these inter-atmospheric doldrums we've been in ever since. Read More...
Technically, we still live in the SPACE AGE!, but practically the SPACE AGE! was over 36 year ago- when the last Apollo mission landed on the moon. Since then, we've stayed in relatively close-Earth orbits. We have done some very breathtaking things- like put Hubble up, then fix her, put robots on Mars, put robots near/on/in Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Mars, Venus, Mercury, Sol, the Asteroid Belt, various comets, and the moons of various planets. Not to mention the amount of satellites. Just think, less than 60 years ago nothing man-made existed in space, and today we have objects that are "more distant from the Sun than any known natural solar system object" according to the wikiGoodness. So, technically, we're still in the SPACE AGE!- because you're either in the SPACE AGE! or you're pre-SPACE AGE!; but practically we're not actually in "space". Still not convinced?
Imagine a room full of people, and a common social game starts. It's the game of one-ups-man-ship. Someone starts with "I'm originally from a country that everyone in the world learns about due to it's historical significance." Another chimes in with "I'm a professor at an illustrious college, who helps form the minds of the greatest thinkers of the next generations." Yet another adds "I'm an Oscar winning Actor, renowned for my ability to convey great emotional portent through my talent." "I'm a professional Athlete who won awards during my collegiate years." "I'm a professional Athlete who was the MVP of the most prestigious game in my sport!" The competition gets into full swing. "I am a Senator from the Great State of YaddaBlahBlah." "I am a Nobel Laureate!" "I have been President of these United States of America!" And finally, from the back comes a masculine voice with an American accent. "I have walked on the Moon."
Fewer people have walked on the moon than have been president of the USA. Twelve people, in the entire history of the human race, have ever left this planet and walked on the surface of another world. 12. Currently there are over 6,000,000,012 on the planet.
Only three countries- China, Russia, and the US- have ever put people in "space". Many other countries have had people on missions those three have conducted; but the fact remains: 3 countries of well over 100, and 12 people in more than 7 billion (this is counting everyone who has ever lived, and those alive today).
The SPACE AGE! ended when we stopped putting people on the Moon. Today, and ever since then, we've been puttering around inside our own atmosphere. We barely put anything into space itself. Sure, there are probes and satellites, observatories, telescopes, and (very few) other things; but there hasn't been people out there in a long long time.
Does that mean we need to spend the money and go to Mars, to Europa, Ganymede, Titan, Enceladus, or somewhere else? No, but I'd be beside myself if we did. I'd be happy to go back to the Moon. I'd be ecstatic if we would simply do what we last showed we were capable of in 1972! I would like to actually live in THE SPACE AGE! instead of these inter-atmospheric doldrums we've been in ever since. Read More...
Thursday, October 09, 2008
What's Wrong?
Finance has been in the news in a big way, lately. Listeners of This American Life will be able to point out, from various shows- (#355) Giant Pool of Money, (#363) Enforcers, and (#365) Another Frightening Show About The Economy- exactly what's happened. Anyone who follows the news- and isn't blinded by terms like Mortgage Backed Securities, Credit Default Swaps, Netting, Leverage, Speculation, Naked Short Selling, Hedging, The Commercial Paper Market- will probably also be able to list the flow of problems that have led to the current crisis. In the past few weeks, there has been more and more paper, text, and other information generated about these problems than any other story since 9/11. It's a big deal, with people in the know saying things like Great Depression, Edge of the Abyss, Train Wreck, Epidemic; and for anyone who doesn't know, or can't quiet get their head around it, I'll contribute my meta-analysis of the situation.
Background is available all over; for instance, via the This American Life shows I mentioned above. I will not be spending any time defining terminology, giving the history of scarcity economics, pointing out how Bernanke is better than the Regan-appointed Greenspan (or how he's an expert on The Great Depression), explaining how Chris Cox- the Chairman of the SEC- has failed spectacularly to do the regulatory job he was given, or weighing the pros and cons of regulation, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, whether Clinton or the Republican controlled Congress of the time were responsible for dropping the regulatory ball on the CDS market, et cetera. What I will do is explain simply how this has happened, in as general and accurate a way as possible.
How did this happen? Large Banks and other financial institutions were allowed to make undisclosed transactions among themselves. These transactions were not something the general public could participate in, and were initially used as a way of reducing the risk of investment. The transactions were not only never disclosed to the public; but were not disclosed to the other Banks and financial institutions that were participating in the transactions. In other words, Bank1 could make a transaction with Bank2, and Bank2 didn't have to tell anyone (not Bank1 nor Bank3 nor its customers nor anyone else) about what was going on, or who they (Bank2) owed/received obligations. It was determined, by members of both political parties, that these transactions were being handled by very smart people, and since the transactions couldn't be done by Joe Blow off the street the industry and the market were sufficiently regulatory.
But remember, the institutions engaged in these transactions didn't have to disclose anything to anyone else- not even the other institutions involved. The transactions were initially a means of insurance; but rapidly became a lucrative means unto themselves. How lucrative? At a time when there was roughly 5 trillion dollars in actual investment, this insurance was due to pay out 60 trillion.
The problem was, no one really knew this back in March of 2008. Some, few, people suspected; but the practice had gone on for more than a decade- a long time in an industry where fortunes could be won and lost in a matter of minutes- or even seconds. Instead of admitting that business people are- like most other people- greedy bastards, no disclosure (other than that tracking payments and payouts) was required. The transactions were profitable, and it all worked wonderfully, until it nearly fucked everyone in the turd-cutter.
So, what specifically happened? Banks manage risk. Banks, also, need large amounts of money- to do things like make business loans. Primarily, Banks tend to lend to one another. Due to financial turmoil, Banks decided it was too risky to lend to one another. Credit, a major force in world wide economics (especially Capitalist Economies), dried up. Some institutions didn't have the money to pay their bills and went under. Some very big, very old, and- for a long time, up until then- very stable businesses died.
Credit Default Swaps, CDS, were insurance (but not really) on bonds- generally low risk to begin with. A CDS was an agreement, for a fee, that if you owned a bond on a company, and the company went under, you'd get your money back on the bond. Like fire insurance against your house ever burning down.
So, if you managed a Hedge Fund worth $100 million, you could sell a billion dollar CDS against Lehman Brothers, to AIG for 2% annually. Which means you make $20 mil a year, and as long as Lehman Brothers- a very old, very stable business that looked like it would never go away- never goes under, you're okay. Additionally, you double the size of your Hedge Fund in 5 years! Bad-ass, for you.
But it would take you 50 years to make the billion dollars you'd owe AIG if Lehman ever went under. That's risky- not very Risky; but there is risk involved. So, you buy a billion dollar CDS from Goldman Sachs against Lehman Brothers at 1% annually.
AIG is paying YOU 20 million a year to insure that you pay off Lehman Brother's billion dollar bond if Lehman ever dies. YOU pay Golmad SAchs 10 million a year to insure that Goldman Sachs pay off Lehman Brother's billion dollar bond if Lehman ever dies. Get it? (That's Netting, because you pass the risk along while you Net 10 million). Here's the catch- you don't have to actually own the Lehman Brother's Bond, or CDS related to it, before buying/selling CDS against it.
Huh?
Lehman looks like it's about to tank. So, you run to AIG and ask for CDS against a billion dollar Lehman Brother's Bond. Lehman Brothers looks shaky, but they've been around FOREVER, so AIG figures it will reem you for 10% annually. Three years later, you've spent $300 million, Lehman Brothers dies, and now AIG owes you a billion dollars!
You just bought Fire Insurance on a house you didn't own, and the house burnt down. But the insurance company wasn't regulated- so instead of having to keep a certain amount of Cash on-hand in case of insurance payouts, they had nothing, and pass the risk to whoever they had bought insurance from. This works so long as the Bank 20 down the line, where cousin Eddie let cousin Freddie in on a sweet deal and cousin Freddie didn't have time to pass on the risk, can pay off the billion dollars.
We let corporate big wigs, who were concerned with two things: the bottom line and their own huge salaries, do completely unregulated transactions without so much as a disclosure requirement.
I wonder what other financial transactions are happening WITHOUT Regulation, and WITHOUT Disclosure. If there are other ones, just wait, they'll be biting us in our ass sometime later- guaranteed. It's not because they were exceptionally greedy corporate bastards. It happened, and will happen int he future, because they were normal greedy people in a position to make themselves a lot of money, in a seemingly low-risk enterprise, with no way of knowing that $5 trillion worth of Bonds were insured for $60 trillion. Anyone else would have done the smae, in their shoes.
The lesson, Aesop? Don't trust people not to be greedy. Sure, you may know a guy who isn't greedy; but does that mean every other idiot who does his job isn't greedy? Does it mean every other person isn't greedy? No. Disclosure and Regulation are necessary, because the Free Market depends on openness to function properly. If consumers can't discover that they're being screwed how can they "vote with their feet" by going to another institution?
(Yeah, I know I went into all the shit I said I wouldn't.... I'm greedy).
Why? Read More...
Background is available all over; for instance, via the This American Life shows I mentioned above. I will not be spending any time defining terminology, giving the history of scarcity economics, pointing out how Bernanke is better than the Regan-appointed Greenspan (or how he's an expert on The Great Depression), explaining how Chris Cox- the Chairman of the SEC- has failed spectacularly to do the regulatory job he was given, or weighing the pros and cons of regulation, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, whether Clinton or the Republican controlled Congress of the time were responsible for dropping the regulatory ball on the CDS market, et cetera. What I will do is explain simply how this has happened, in as general and accurate a way as possible.
How did this happen? Large Banks and other financial institutions were allowed to make undisclosed transactions among themselves. These transactions were not something the general public could participate in, and were initially used as a way of reducing the risk of investment. The transactions were not only never disclosed to the public; but were not disclosed to the other Banks and financial institutions that were participating in the transactions. In other words, Bank1 could make a transaction with Bank2, and Bank2 didn't have to tell anyone (not Bank1 nor Bank3 nor its customers nor anyone else) about what was going on, or who they (Bank2) owed/received obligations. It was determined, by members of both political parties, that these transactions were being handled by very smart people, and since the transactions couldn't be done by Joe Blow off the street the industry and the market were sufficiently regulatory.
But remember, the institutions engaged in these transactions didn't have to disclose anything to anyone else- not even the other institutions involved. The transactions were initially a means of insurance; but rapidly became a lucrative means unto themselves. How lucrative? At a time when there was roughly 5 trillion dollars in actual investment, this insurance was due to pay out 60 trillion.
The problem was, no one really knew this back in March of 2008. Some, few, people suspected; but the practice had gone on for more than a decade- a long time in an industry where fortunes could be won and lost in a matter of minutes- or even seconds. Instead of admitting that business people are- like most other people- greedy bastards, no disclosure (other than that tracking payments and payouts) was required. The transactions were profitable, and it all worked wonderfully, until it nearly fucked everyone in the turd-cutter.
So, what specifically happened? Banks manage risk. Banks, also, need large amounts of money- to do things like make business loans. Primarily, Banks tend to lend to one another. Due to financial turmoil, Banks decided it was too risky to lend to one another. Credit, a major force in world wide economics (especially Capitalist Economies), dried up. Some institutions didn't have the money to pay their bills and went under. Some very big, very old, and- for a long time, up until then- very stable businesses died.
Credit Default Swaps, CDS, were insurance (but not really) on bonds- generally low risk to begin with. A CDS was an agreement, for a fee, that if you owned a bond on a company, and the company went under, you'd get your money back on the bond. Like fire insurance against your house ever burning down.
So, if you managed a Hedge Fund worth $100 million, you could sell a billion dollar CDS against Lehman Brothers, to AIG for 2% annually. Which means you make $20 mil a year, and as long as Lehman Brothers- a very old, very stable business that looked like it would never go away- never goes under, you're okay. Additionally, you double the size of your Hedge Fund in 5 years! Bad-ass, for you.
But it would take you 50 years to make the billion dollars you'd owe AIG if Lehman ever went under. That's risky- not very Risky; but there is risk involved. So, you buy a billion dollar CDS from Goldman Sachs against Lehman Brothers at 1% annually.
AIG is paying YOU 20 million a year to insure that you pay off Lehman Brother's billion dollar bond if Lehman ever dies. YOU pay Golmad SAchs 10 million a year to insure that Goldman Sachs pay off Lehman Brother's billion dollar bond if Lehman ever dies. Get it? (That's Netting, because you pass the risk along while you Net 10 million). Here's the catch- you don't have to actually own the Lehman Brother's Bond, or CDS related to it, before buying/selling CDS against it.
Huh?
Lehman looks like it's about to tank. So, you run to AIG and ask for CDS against a billion dollar Lehman Brother's Bond. Lehman Brothers looks shaky, but they've been around FOREVER, so AIG figures it will reem you for 10% annually. Three years later, you've spent $300 million, Lehman Brothers dies, and now AIG owes you a billion dollars!
You just bought Fire Insurance on a house you didn't own, and the house burnt down. But the insurance company wasn't regulated- so instead of having to keep a certain amount of Cash on-hand in case of insurance payouts, they had nothing, and pass the risk to whoever they had bought insurance from. This works so long as the Bank 20 down the line, where cousin Eddie let cousin Freddie in on a sweet deal and cousin Freddie didn't have time to pass on the risk, can pay off the billion dollars.
We let corporate big wigs, who were concerned with two things: the bottom line and their own huge salaries, do completely unregulated transactions without so much as a disclosure requirement.
I wonder what other financial transactions are happening WITHOUT Regulation, and WITHOUT Disclosure. If there are other ones, just wait, they'll be biting us in our ass sometime later- guaranteed. It's not because they were exceptionally greedy corporate bastards. It happened, and will happen int he future, because they were normal greedy people in a position to make themselves a lot of money, in a seemingly low-risk enterprise, with no way of knowing that $5 trillion worth of Bonds were insured for $60 trillion. Anyone else would have done the smae, in their shoes.
The lesson, Aesop? Don't trust people not to be greedy. Sure, you may know a guy who isn't greedy; but does that mean every other idiot who does his job isn't greedy? Does it mean every other person isn't greedy? No. Disclosure and Regulation are necessary, because the Free Market depends on openness to function properly. If consumers can't discover that they're being screwed how can they "vote with their feet" by going to another institution?
(Yeah, I know I went into all the shit I said I wouldn't.... I'm greedy).
Why? Read More...
Thursday, October 02, 2008
Quickies
* Space X got Falcon into Space! So Awesome, I knew they'd get it- and still it's exciting. There's Video up on YouTube, go check it out.
* Sarah Palin- like you really needed another reason NOT to vote for McCain. See that shit with Curic? "Name me another Supreme Court Case You disagree with, besides Roe v Wade." "Yeah, well, Roe v Wade." "Name a time McCain was ever what you say he was." "Yeah, well, uhm, did I mention I'm a woman?"
* Daily Show tonight skewered Palin/McCain Awesomely. One of the best episodes in the last year, if not the best.
* Running back into my internet exile for a few more days. Changes a-comin'... Read More...
* Sarah Palin- like you really needed another reason NOT to vote for McCain. See that shit with Curic? "Name me another Supreme Court Case You disagree with, besides Roe v Wade." "Yeah, well, Roe v Wade." "Name a time McCain was ever what you say he was." "Yeah, well, uhm, did I mention I'm a woman?"
* Daily Show tonight skewered Palin/McCain Awesomely. One of the best episodes in the last year, if not the best.
* Running back into my internet exile for a few more days. Changes a-comin'... Read More...
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